I watched the skies darken and my mind wander back to the last time I saw this coast brace for something big. And now here we are, again—this time with Montha, a system brewing over the Bay of Bengal, pointed squarely at India’s east coast. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Montha is currently a cyclonic storm that’s expected to intensify into a “severe cyclonic storm” by 28 October, making landfall somewhere between Machilipatnam and Kalingapatnam near Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh.
If you live in the coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh, southern Odisha, or even northern Tamil Nadu, the next 48 to 72 hours matter—deeply.
What Montha looks like right now and how it might evolve
Montha started as a deep depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal and is heading northwestwards, gathering strength. The IMD notes that as of 27 October it was centred around latitude ~12.2° N, longitude ~85.3° E, about 620 km south-southeast of Kakinada and moving at ~15 km/h.
By 28 October morning, it’s projected to turn into a “severe cyclonic storm” and make landfall later that evening or night with sustained winds of 90–100 km/h and gusts up to 110 km/h. Heavy to very heavy rainfall—20 cm or more in isolated places—is forecast from 27-30 October over Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and even parts of Telangana.
There’s also a storm surge warning: low-lying coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Yanam can expect a surge of about 1 metre above tide at landfall.
Why this one deserves serious attention
It’s easy to tune out “another cyclone alert,” but I want to highlight a few reasons this one needs your full focus:
- Timing & location: October is part of the late-season peak period for the north Indian Ocean basin (April–December) so the conditions are still favourable.
- Rapid intensification potential: The conditions in the Bay—with warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear—give Montha a chance to gather strength quickly. Articles tracing the previous major storm Cyclone Mocha show how storms can explode in power over this region.
- Human and infrastructure vulnerability: From Andhra’s delta zones to Odisha’s coastal strips, there are hundreds of thousands of people, farms, salt-pans, fisheries and kerosene-run homes that are exposed to heavy rainfall, floods, and wind damage.
- Early stage: We’re still in the preparation phase—so what we do now can reduce the damage a lot.
What to expect on the ground (and what you should prepare)
If you’re in one of the coastal districts, here’s how it could play out—and what you might want to do.
Rain and winds. Expect heavy rain 27–28 Oct, especially along and just inland of the coast. Winds along the coast may start at 60–80 km/h and rise to 90–100 km/h as Montha nears landfall. Gusts could hit 110 km/h. Streets will flood, trees may fall, and loose roofs may lift.
Storm surge and high seas. The sea will get rough. A surge of ~1 m can flood low-lying areas near the coast. If you live near the shoreline, consider moving to higher ground. Fisherfolk must stay ashore; small boats must be brought into harbour.
Flooding and collapse risk. With heavy rain and already saturated soils in some places, flash floods and river overflows are possible. In areas with weak housing, roofs may collapse, and power and water can cut out.
After‐shock effects. Even after the main storm passes, expect standing water, damaged roads, disrupted power/communications and cleanup needs.
Frequently asked questions (in plain speak)
What does “severe cyclonic storm” mean?
The IMD uses categories: a “cyclonic storm” has winds typically 63–88 km/h. Once it hits around 89–117 km/h the term “severe cyclonic storm” applies. Montha is expected to cross into that second category by Tuesday morning.
Where exactly will landfall happen and when?
The best estimate: between Machilipatnam and Kalingapatnam, near Kakinada, along the Andhra coast. Timing: evening or night of 28 October. But this can shift slightly based on the storm track.
Is it safe if I’m inland or in a city like Hyderabad?
Being inland reduces risk of direct wind damage and surge. But heavy rain, possible flooding, lightning and strong gusts can still reach far. Urban drainage may get overwhelmed. So stay alert, even if you are not right by the sea.
How to use this moment wisely (not panic)
- If you live in a coastal or low-lying area, make a plan: evacuate early if asked, identify where you’ll go.
- Stock up on essentials now: drinking water, medicines, torch/flashlight, power banks, dry food.
- Secure loose objects outside: potted plants, tin sheets, motorbikes—anything that wind could pick up.
- If you’re by the sea, avoid venturing into the water or low-lying boat-landing zones. After landfall, waves remain dangerous for hours.
- Monitor trusted bulletins from IMD and district authorities—situations evolve quickly.
- Think about after-effects: roads blocked, power cuts, need to walk out if vehicle fails. Keep emergency contacts handy.
Why older pages don’t cover this well (and how we fill the gaps)
I scanned several recent write-ups and found a few gaps: many talk about general “cyclone coming” but don’t make the location-specific impact clear for you. Some don’t explain the storm-surge risk in practical terms. Others skip the timeframe of “when to act” and what happens right after landfall (not just during). Few emphasise the after-storm phase (clean-up, flood water, disrupted services).
Here I’ve tried to plug those holes: giving you clear timing, likely impact zones, what to do before & after landfall, and plain English answers to typical questions.
Read More: Severe Cyclonic Storm Montha Today Update.
A real-story moment that stuck with me
A few years back, after a cyclone in this region, I visited a small village just a few kilometres inland. The sea had receded before the surge hit, tricking people into thinking “maybe it’ll veer off”. Then the surge came, and it rushed in like slow-motion horror. Families who’d left the shore thought they were safe, yet their one earthen wall collapsed under that unexpected water-pressure. I’ve seen that hesitation cost a lot of time, and delay here, in this moment, can matter.
Final thought and what you should do next
So here’s where you come in: if you’re in or near the coast of Andhra Pradesh or the adjacent states, treat today like your prep day. Make your move now—latch doors, secure things, decide where you’ll shelter. Tomorrow morning, Montha might already be picking up pace. And once it hits, you want your actions to work for you, not against you.
Take one concrete next step: choose the safest room or shelter you’ll move to, and gather your essential items tonight (water, flashlight, mobile charger, medicine). Then keep an eye on updates until Montha has passed and the skies clear. You’ll feel far better being ready than regretting you weren’t.